Dutch GP Sprint Qualifying predicted order after the only practice session (FP1)
The model predicts McLaren as the fastest team in Sprint Qualifying, despite being slower in practise.
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My commentary
- I would expect to see Red Bull, particularly Verstappen a bit higher, but he had a couple of excursions during FP which hampered his running
- It will be interesting to see if Aston Martin really have closed up to Williams with their latest updates
How the forecast was made
The model uses only information available after the relevant Friday practice sessions. It predicts each team's percentage gap from the fastest team and converts that relative gap to seconds for presentation.
The saved model was trained through round 11. The horizontal bars are 80% empirical error intervals using Global empirical, calibrated from earlier out-of-sample forecasts.
Result and review
Mercedes set the fastest team time in sprint qualifying.
The forecast put McLaren first rather than Mercedes.
Across 11 matched teams, the gap MAE was 0.410s (0.593 percentage points), with 92.7% of team-to-team orderings correct.
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