Latest prediction after FP2
The model predicts Mercedes as the fastest team in Qualifying.
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How the forecast was made
The model uses only information available after the relevant Friday practice sessions. It predicts each team's percentage gap from the fastest team and converts that relative gap to seconds for presentation.
The saved model was trained through round 11. The horizontal bars are 80% empirical error intervals using Global empirical, calibrated from earlier out-of-sample forecasts.
Result and review
Session result
As a surprise to most people, Alpine set the fastest team time in qualifying.
Across 11 matched teams, the gap MAE was 0.493s (0.594 percentage points), with 87.3% of team-to-team orderings correct.
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