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Open forecastSpanish Grand Prix · Qualifying

Spanish Grand Prix: predicted team order for qualifying

Friday-practice data puts Mercedes at the front, with predicted gaps and calibrated uncertainty for every team.

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Published before the session
by Rhys Gardener
F1 2026Qualifying predictionsData analysis

Latest prediction after FP2

The model predicts Mercedes as the fastest team in Qualifying.

Although I doubt Mclaren will be that far back! The red flag caused by Lindblad causing a few issues.

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How the forecast was made

The model uses only information available after the relevant Friday practice sessions. It predicts each team's percentage gap from the fastest team and converts that relative gap to seconds for presentation.

The saved model was trained through round 11. The horizontal bars are 80% empirical error intervals using Global empirical, calibrated from earlier out-of-sample forecasts.

Result and review

To be completed after the session.